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vol-26USING RISK ANALYSIS FOR ECONOMICS OF EGYPTIAN
TRAWL FISHERIES IN MEDITERRANEAN WATERS
By
ABD EL- KHALEK, Z. M”
*Nationallnstitute o.(Oceanography and Fisheries. Alexandria. Egypt.
Key words: Risk margin, Acceptable profit margin, Probabilistic
approach, Normal density function, Coefficient of
variation, Cumulative distribution function.
ABSTRACT
This study was carried 01iT to estimate minimum levels 0.( profit
margin to satisfj’ an acceptable predetermined risk jor investments oj
.fishing trawlers in MeditelTanean Eastern- Harbour center in the year
2000, with regard to power-engine capaciTY as well as fishing grounds
0.(both home fisheries and o.ff- lmters.
The reliability 0.( the various detenninistic approaches jor the
prediction oj pro.fztability 0.( trawlers is indicated. the probabilistic
approach is presented to estimate coefficient 0.( variation (C V) oj
both Revenue and Expenditure factors Pro.fzzability jactor M was
evaluated so as to satisfj’ a projected investment at an acceptable
degree o.frisk
The analysis is based on the assumption that Revenues and
EJ..penditures /011011 the Nonnal Densit)’ Function. Profitability jactor
(y) oj fishing vessel was calculated from pro.fitability index (fJ), the
laterfrom Revenues. Expenditures and their coeffiCient ojvariation.
This study revealed that high productive and economic indices
were shown li’ith small motor trawlers compared to big one jor home
